Euro exchange rate forecast on the chart. Forecasts of dollar and euro exchange rates for the fall. Leading analyst at AMarkets Artem Deev

Today I decided to tell you the latest euro forecast for 2017. Currently, the Russian economy is not experiencing the best better times, the financial situation of the state is very unstable.

The country's solvency largely depends on market conditions, or more precisely on the price of black gold. And as we all know, recently the price of oil has been at a low level. It is for this reason that the Russian economy is not in the most favorable position. European sanctions have also had an impact negative impact on the state economy.

The economic condition of the state can only improve if the internal/external situation normalizes and the price of oil rises, which will accordingly lead to an increase in the price of the Russian ruble. And if sanctions are lifted, then this will significantly improve the state’s economy.

Over the past two years, there has been a sharp depreciation of the ruble, which, in turn, has caused unrest among domestic citizens. Today, almost all domestic citizens are interested in exchange rates, including the forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2017.

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2017 from the Central Bank

The leadership of the Central Bank stated that a slight reduction in prices can be expected soon national currency, accordingly, the euro will rise against the ruble. But after Brexit, the euro/dollar pair began to show a stable downward trend, that is, the euro has been falling in price against the dollar for six months.

Let me remind you that many experts predicted that the euro would become cheaper regardless of the referendum decision, which is exactly what happened.

The euro exchange rate forecast for 2017 suggests that euro quotes will fall in the future. So, the euro/dollar pair will be dominated by a downward trend next year.

So, the euro will become cheaper in the future, but in order to determine the future ratio of the euro to the ruble, it is worth finding out what will happen to the ruble in 2017. Unfortunately, a sharp improvement in the situation in the Russian Federation is not expected in the near future. Many analysts assume that next year the national currency rate will maintain a downward trend.

What is the best way to store currency in 2017?

Due to the fact that next year the domestic currency will become slightly cheaper, many Russian citizens are wondering where to store their savings in 2017. If you cannot choose what is better to buy: dollars or euros, then experienced financiers advise purchasing dollars.

I would like to note that the euro/ruble quotes are influenced by the euro/dollar pair quotes. Credit Suisse Bank, which is located in Switzerland, assures that in 2017 the value of the dollar and the euro will be equal. Even if they are not quoted 1:1, the price of the dollar will significantly approach the value of the euro.

The opinion of Morgan Stanley employees is somewhat different from that presented above; they assume that in 2017 the value of the EU currency will be 90 rubles. You should not blindly trust their forecasts, as they are often mistaken and change their forecasts.

Employees of the Ministry of Economic Development assure that an increase in oil prices can lead to stabilization of the Russian economy. And if oil remains at $40, then the government will have to cut budget spending.

Some experts suggest that the government will not be able to cut spending, which will soon lead to a sharp collapse of the ruble. China actively trades with Russia. If in the future the PRC does not improve its position, this will contribute to a further reduction in the price of black gold, which will accordingly lead to a depreciation of the ruble.

In order to improve the situation in the Reserve Fund, you can take the following measures:

Reduce expenses.
Use funds from the Welfare Fund.
Activate issue financing.

Experienced specialists consider the use of the second point inappropriate, as this will increase the debt. The best option is to reduce costs. Thus, the Russian leadership plans to reduce expenses by 3 trillion rubles in 2017. It is not yet clear what measures will be taken for this.

The most accurate euro exchange rate forecast for 2017

You can see the euro forecast for 2017 in Russia below.

January 2017

At the beginning of the new year, the euro will cost 73.4. The maximum exchange rate in January 2017 was 73.4, and the minimum was 70.5. The monthly average is 72.2.

February 2017

In the first days of February, the value of the European currency will be 71.6. The maximum exchange rate in February 2017 will be 74.4, and the minimum will be 71.5. The average for the entire month is 72.74.

At the beginning of March 2017, the price of the European currency will be 73.3. The maximum rate value will be 73.3, and the minimum 70.4. The average value for the month of March is 72.1.

April 2017

At the beginning of April 2017, the euro will cost 71.5. The maximum exchange rate will be 71.6, and the minimum 69.5. The average value will be around 70.6.

At the beginning of May 2017, the euro will cost 70.6. The maximum price will be 70.7, and the minimum will be 68.6. The average price of the EU currency will be 69.9.

In June 2017, the euro will cost 69.6. The maximum price in June 2017 will be 69.6, and the minimum will be 66.9. The average value of quotations in June is 68.5.

In July, the European currency will cost 67.9. The maximum rate in July 2017 will be 68.99, and the minimum 66.95. The average value of European currency quotes will be around 67.97.

August 2017

In August, the European currency will cost 67.97. The maximum rate in August 2017 will be 70.7, and the minimum 67.9. The average price will be around 69.05.

September 2017

This month the European currency will cost 69.7. The maximum rate in September 2017 will be 72.5, and the minimum 69.7. The average cost in September will be 70.8.

October 2017

This month the price of the euro is 71.4. The limit quotes will be 72.08, and the minimum quote will be 69.95. The average cost in October will be 71.5.

November 2017

At the beginning of November 2017, the euro will cost 71. The maximum rate in November 2017 will be 71, and the minimum 67.2. The average cost in November will be 68.9.

December 2017

At the beginning of December 2017, the euro will cost 69.3. The maximum quotes will be around 71.7, and the minimum 69.3. The average cost in December will be 70.2.

Most analysts surveyed by InvestFuture predict a significant weakening of the ruble/dollar exchange rate in the autumn months. The key negative factors cited by experts are the expected weakening of demand for oil on world markets, a consistent reduction in the Bank of Russia rate, as well as growing geopolitical tensions and the expansion of anti-Russian sanctions.

In the fall of 2017, experts predict that the dollar/ruble exchange rate will strengthen to 65 rubles per unit of American currency. The euro exchange rate may rise above 72 rubles.

Vadim Pischikov (Algebra Investments): “68 rubles per dollar is a completely correct forecast given the current volatility of the ruble. In principle, for the currency of any developing country, a 10% fluctuation in the exchange rate is very moderate. I cannot say that this is the influence solely of sanctions. Very rapid growth in credit markets , on capital markets, shares in developing countries in the first half of 2017 led to the fact that investors simply decided to take profits in anticipation of the reduction of the balance sheet at the US Federal Reserve and rebalance their losses. In addition, there was news that Washington was preparing new sanctions. known back at the end of April, but the ruble did not react very much to this."

Yakov Mirkin (Head of the Department of International Capital Markets, IMEMO RAS): " On the one hand, we have long been talking about the fact that the ruble is too heavy, overvalued, does not correspond to such a weak economy, and that an exchange rate of 65-66, maybe 70, is more organic for it. On the other hand, everyone understood that the wave of carry trade was growing from the second half of last year, and as soon as non-residents, who became more and more in percentage terms by Russian market, they feel an increase in risks - and this may indeed be associated with sanctions - then an increase in the export of capital from the country will begin. Of course, sanctions are another factor in the overall global and macroeconomic picture."

“I agree that there is a tense expectation of some kind of shock in the air, but, from my point of view, this could be with equal probability both a correction in the ruble and a correction in the American S&P 500. There is a lot of political passion in the market news feed: fundamental factors have faded into the background,” says a leading analyst Management Company "Horizon" Vladimir Rozhankovsky.

When will the ruble fall?

Rozhankovsky from Horizon Management Company notes that in the summer, no unusual volumes are visible in the dollar/ruble and euro/ruble pairs. In the coming months, the ruble will not leave the range of 59.2-60.8 rubles per dollar, he believes. Meanwhile, the dollar index is already below 94 points, and oil is relatively stable, the analyst points out.

In the absence of cardinal events on the oil market and on the world political arena, from the point of view of technical analysis, the pair may soon move in the trading corridor of 59-60.5 rubles, where significant levels of resistance and support are located, respectively, a trader in the management of operations on the Russian stock exchange believes IR market "Freedom Finance" Vladimir Shumakov.

We are not seeing any particular weakening of the ruble, the dollar/ruble pair remains in the range of 58-60, the maximum of July 11 at 61 is still far away, the analyst also notes "VTB 24" Alexey Mikheev.

As for the euro/ruble pair, it actually updated the maximum of this year, almost reaching 70, but this is due to the fact that in recent days the euro-dollar pair has reached the highs of the year on the international currency market (the level of 1.16 is shown), Mikheev draws attention.

According to Mikheev from VTB 24, a new wave of ruble weakening should be expected in the midst of autumn, when demand for oil falls due to seasonal reasons. In the meantime, time after time, data show a reduction in US oil reserves, which supports its price, he notes. In the fall, the dollar-ruble pair may well rise to 63-65 rubles per dollar, the expert predicts.

Will the dollar soar in winter 2017?

The US Treasury intends to sharply increase the issuance of government debt in the fourth quarter, according to the forecast plan published by the US Treasury Loan Committee.

From October to December, the American budget plans to raise a total of $501 billion on the market using government bonds.

According to the plan, placements in a record volume for 9 years will begin in the second half of October. The Treasury intends to collect almost a quarter of the total amount - $114 billion - in the first two weeks, until October 31. In November, the issue volume will be $243 billion.

The final quarterly figure - more than half a trillion dollars - is “simply mind-blowing,” says analyst Alexey Mikheev: more was raised per quarter only in the 2009 financial year, during the crisis.

The result of these operations will be “the withdrawal of a colossal amount of dollar liquidity from the market,” which will cause “a colossal growth of the dollar,” says Mikheev.

Demand for the US currency will come from banks - the Fed's primary dealers: they are the main buyers of US debt securities at auctions, and also control 73% of the forex market.

“These are the largest banks such as Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Citigroup, Goldman, Sachs & Co., Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS Securities, etc.,” Mikheev lists.

The European currency retains good potential for further strengthening, which is reflected in the euro exchange rate forecasts for the fall of 2017.

Improved macroeconomic dynamics in the eurozone has an impact on investor behavior. In addition, a decrease in political uncertainty has a positive effect on the position of the European currency.

Bet on strengthening

During 2017, the European currency strengthened against the dollar by 5.9%, which is becoming a stable trend. Investor preferences are associated with positive election results in European countries, which reduces risks for the continued existence of the EU. In addition, the restoration of the growth rate of the eurozone economy will allow the ECB to move on to winding down the quantitative easing program. At the same time, the dynamics of the US economy in 2017 lags behind analysts’ expectations, which negatively affects the position of the dollar.

HSBC representatives emphasize the change in investor sentiment regarding the US currency. If previously speculators preferred to bet on a strong dollar, the lack of real reforms announced by Donald Trump was reflected in the outflow of capital in favor of the euro. As a result, quotes of the European currency have overcome the level of 1.11 dollars/euro and will continue to move towards the level of 1.15.

Barclays analysts also expect a gradual strengthening of the European currency. American banks recovered more quickly from the 2008 crisis, which led to the strengthening of the dollar in previous periods. However, increasing uncertainty for the US economy in 2017 will contribute to the weakening of the dollar in the medium term.

In 2017, the ECB will be able to move to reducing the volume of purchases of financial assets aimed at stimulating economic development. Despite maintaining the rate at zero level, the winding down of the quantitative easing policy will strengthen the position of the euro in the near term. At the same time, the increase in the Fed's key rate will lag behind analysts' expectations, which will play against the dollar.

A negative factor for the euro remains the lack of consensus with the UK on the final terms of Brexit. Foggy Albion and the EU cannot agree on the final amounts of compensation, as well as the further format of trade relations and migration policy. As a result, the eurozone economy may suffer additional losses, which will affect investor activity.

In the fall of 2017, the euro/ruble exchange rate will also begin to rise, analysts predict. At the same time, the scale of changes in currency quotes will depend on the volatility of the oil market.

Euro vs ruble

This fall, the euro will continue to strengthen its position against the ruble, experts predict. Against the backdrop of the positive dynamics of the European currency, changes in the value of the ruble will be caused by price fluctuations in the oil market.

Despite concerted measures by OPEC aimed at limiting oil production, oil prices will not be able to overcome the level of $50 per barrel. Oil consumption volumes are growing at an insufficient pace to level out existing surpluses. At the same time, exporters who have not joined the agreement continue to increase their supply of “black gold,” which maintains existing imbalances. First of all, oil prices remain under pressure as a result of growing shale oil production in the United States.

In addition to oil, Western sanctions and a decrease in the attractiveness of domestic assets have a negative impact on the position of the ruble. The outflow of speculative capital as a result of a reduction in the Central Bank rate will reduce the value of the ruble in the near future. In addition, the domestic budget deficit remains high level, which forces the government to look for additional sources to finance existing expenses. A moderate weakening of the ruble will increase the state treasury's revenue from energy exports, which will make it easier for the government to meet budget targets.

Changing the dynamics of currency ratios is a pressing issue that concerns not only economists throughout the country, but also ordinary people. In the context of the developing crisis, the ruble exchange rate is not able to demonstrate stability. The indicator on the stock exchanges constantly fluctuates; people involved in business and trade are forced to constantly monitor the latest changes online, analyze the chart, and make assumptions.

Permanent uncertainty cannot but affect the mood of society. Worries and constant doubts do not allow you to be confident in the near future and make solid plans. One of the available options is to turn to the opinions of experts who are able to give an objective assessment of the situation in the economy at a professional level and predict the further movement of the exchange rate.

The current situation in the financial market reflects one of the worst scenarios. Half of the year has passed, marking its end with a significant decline in the position of the domestic currency. The collapse of the ruble was not unexpected for analysts, since something similar was expected by the fall of this year. However, events began to develop rapidly, resulting in premature significant changes on the stock exchanges. Such a turn does not mean that it is impossible to make plans regarding currency fluctuations for the rest of the year. The position of the Old World currency in relation to the ruble has similar trends to the position of its American counterpart, but does not demonstrate transparency and evidence.

The current exchange rate today varies around 74 rubles per euro. The ratio of the latter to the dollar is 1.11. But parity is not expected. A slight fall in the euro (1%) was caused by a statement by the head of the European Central Bank about negative expectations regarding economic growth in the EU countries.

What are the influencing factors?

The ruble continues to lose its position and sets new record levels, the latter in no way can evoke positive emotions. Factors that influence the foreign exchange ratio in Russia are as follows:

the cost of gas and oil (at the beginning of the year, profits from energy sales on the Chinese market were able to at least somehow bring stability to the economy);
investment policy (at the beginning of the year it was planned to receive benefits from investments in the development of the Crimean region and Asian regions);
Ukrainian crisis (the inability to peacefully resolve the conflict between neighboring countries leads to the impossibility of strengthening the national course);
sanctions policy (organizing exports to Asian countries, reducing import supplies and developing own production in conditions of restrictions from the West, experts consider it a natural way out);
the situation in Europe (events in Greece, the direction of German economic influence).

Analysis of prospects.

Expert forecasts, including for the fall, indicate that the eurozone currency will continue to strengthen its position, this will lead to an increase in the indicator from 76 to 88 rubles in October, then to a transition beyond 90 (in December). This phenomenon is associated not so much with the strengthening of the European currency, but with the weakening of the national currency, which will continue in the near future. The following factors contribute to this:

Chinese stock market crash;
bilateral expansion of sanctions (initiation of measures from both the European and Russian sides);
fulfillment of external obligations in the financial sector, announced by the chief economist for the CIS and Russia Oleg Kuzmin, the amount exceeds $14 billion (planned for September);
the impossibility of stabilizing the situation in Ukraine;
exemption from Iran's sanctions restrictions (the likely oil exports from this country in November could bring down the market once again).

The Greek crisis has passed its climax, therefore, today, tomorrow, and beyond, the amplitude between the euro and dollar rates will continue. This opinion is all the more true considering that in the coming days the United States plans to raise key rate financial reserve. This will significantly strengthen the position of American banks, but will lead to a wave of devaluation in relation to other currencies.

If previously devaluation turned out to be an effective measure to support the national economy, then in the current conditions it has ceased to be relevant. This has a direct bearing on the fact that almost all developed economies are heavily dependent on large businesses, which include the real estate market, trade relations and manufacturing. All that devaluation leads to today is progressive inflation, an outflow of funds, a decrease in consumer opportunities and a decrease in investments. An economic downturn is the most likely future news.

Sberbank experts predict an increase in the foreign exchange rate due to another weakening of the ruble’s position, also provoked by a decrease in interest rates, as ordered by the Central Bank. In the current situation, in relation to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev outlined the unacceptability of hasty decisions and the lack of need for them.

Position of the euro in global terms.

Expert analytics RBC TV channel I am inclined to note the prospect of a decline in the position of the euro relative to the American currency. This is explained by the fact that investors are trying to avoid investing in euros due to the unstable state of the banking system and the general weak development of economic sectors in Europe. Against this background, the dollar seems to be the most attractive option for investment, especially if the project is long-term.

Europe's dependence on the economies of developing countries also has a negative impact on the economy of the Old World. The Europeans themselves tend to blame the United States for this, not wanting to bear objective responsibility for what is happening. The prospects for a further weakening of the euro on world exchanges and in banks are confirmed by the escalation of the crisis in countries belonging to the European Union, as well as the presence of economic conflicts in the central and eastern parts of Europe.

At the same time, not a single expert takes it upon himself to make a fresh and accurate forecast, but the absolute majority predicts a strengthening of the euro against the background of a weakening ruble. Attempts to create plans and strategies for the next year are considered completely irrational, since the world is experiencing instability in all respects: both in terms of geopolitics and in relation to numerous economic factors affecting currency correlations.

Similar to the exchange rate, the euro exchange rate during August, having reached a peak on the 4th (then the single European currency almost broke the 72 ruble mark), is on a downward trend. Strengthening of the ruble in to the same degree affects both the dollar exchange rate in Russia and the euro exchange rate. The situation that was observed in July, when the euro strengthened against the dollar at the same or faster pace than the ruble, has not yet occurred. The euro has reached some equilibrium against the dollar, and their cross rate now balances just below 1.18. Let's figure out what experts think about the possible exchange rate of the euro in September.

Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from August 21

On the eve of the last ten days of August, analysts assume that the ruble/euro exchange rate will experience a certain volatility throughout September, which will lead to a slight depreciation at the end of the month. At least, this is exactly the picture that experts from the analytical agency APECON from Moscow are currently painting for us, who are not afraid to make accurate forecasts of exchange rates and other economic indicators.

When turning to such forecasts, you need to understand that they cannot be absolutely accurate. Experts, offering their vision of the future, proceed from those factors that exist now and may be important in the period being described, as well as from some factors that can be more or less predicted. For example, the volume of purchases of the Russian ruble by Russian companies on the eve of the next tax payment period.

Analysts naturally make mistakes when something interferes with the complex interweaving of external factors that affect exchange rates, oil prices and other indicators that could not be foreseen or the effect of some event could not be reliably assessed, even if it was expected. News from the field of politics, especially international, natural or man-made disasters etc., all this can dramatically change the situation on the stock exchanges.

So, let's return to the possible euro exchange rate in September. The forecast for the euro exchange rate for September 2017, proposed by experts of the above-mentioned APECON, for August 21 is as follows:

By September 1, the euro exchange rate may drop to 67.87 rubles.
By September 10, the single European currency will experience a minor final correction – 67.46 rubles.
Until September 20, the euro will rise in price quite noticeably and its exchange rate will be approximately 69.63 rubles.
By October, the euro may again fall to 66.66 rubles.

Thus, so far experts are predicting a noticeable rally for the euro in September, which will end with a final strengthening of the ruble against the European currency by about 1.8%. Most likely, these forecasts will be slightly adjusted closer to the beginning of the month, so we will turn to them again. The article will be updated.

Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from August 30

Closer to the beginning of September, the forecast of APECON experts for the euro exchange rate in Russia was slightly adjusted, including taking into account the growth of the euro/dollar cross rate. The latest forecast from agency analysts is as follows:

On September 1, the euro will cost approximately 68.81 rubles.
By September 10, the European currency will rise in price by half the ruble - up to 69.30 rubles.
By September 20, we can expect the euro to depreciate to 68.47 rubles.
At the end of the month, the euro will cost about 68.41 rubles.

Thus, if from